When Retention Curves Mislead
A rising retention chart can still hide a shrinking active base. Learn the checks that keep product reviews honest.
Retention curves are persuasive because they look definitive. They are also easy to distort with cohort windows, incomplete identity stitching, and silent exclusion of churned accounts.
Start by confirming the activity definition. Is a retained user someone who opened the app, completed a core action, or merely received a push? Different definitions produce different stories.
Next, compare absolute retained users alongside the percentage curve. A healthier-looking percentage can mask a smaller cohort if acquisition quality changed.
Publish both the curve and the caveats in the same view. Product debates improve when everyone sees the same assumptions.